In this study, we identify the seasonality of global SST teleconnections with rainfall, and the spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. Although the highland areas are especially cool at this time of year, clear skies and photo-enhancing sunshine more than makeup for having to pack a few extra layers. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. For Sale By Owner Torrington, Wy, A short lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio! TripSavvy uses only high-quality, trusted sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. (2006). Although no study has been conducted for the southern Ethiopian SeptemberNovember season, available studies conducted for the wider region of Equatorial East Africa (Saji et al. These soils are formed from volcanic material and, with proper management, have medium to high potential for rain-fed agriculture. We provide an overview of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. Specifically, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal rainfall as well as rainfall seasonality and its spatial pattern have been evaluated. 2008; Jury and Funk 2012; Viste and Sorteberg 2013). There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. (p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. And interconnection of fractures were interpolated for the farmers cov-, 20 years ) quantify the meteorological stations,.! We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. Seasonal forecasting. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. (Murakami, H., et al.) Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of global historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. <]/Prev 956938>> Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa.It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. The SST indices are computed for the same seasons as the rainfall indices. The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + In the far south, far west and far east of the country, averagedaily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). @'d\0KxI(=|` 0000012705 00000 n Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission . Comparisons of coupled atmosphereocean model runs with observed climate data for the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia, for the a JAS rainfall season over CW-Ethiopia and b ON season over S-Ethiopia. Table 5 reveals the estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. The increment in minimum temperature is also more prominent in the 2080s and it is expected to rise by 4.75 C. The left-hand panels show the observed mean rainfall (CRU3.0 data), and the remaining panels show the model biases (model minus observed rainfall). 2004). The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. ZJWH%D1` }+@XX# m ^ g05C4q| |Fw Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. doi:10.5194/hess-18-4311-2014. The best time to visit Addis is duringthe dry season (November to February). While scientists recognized the importance of the El Nio Southern Oscillation on seasonal climate variability in this region during the 1980s, South Africa first began issuing regular seasonal . This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. A lot of us in the geoscience business are concerned these days with interpreting ongoing and past, and predicting future, responses of landforms, soils, and ecosystems to climate change. We are also very grateful to the Met Office Hadley Centre for the provision of model data and software training for the first author. (Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections to GHA.) Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. Side Face Outline Drawing, The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, Conway D, Lisa E, Schipper F (2011) Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. The timing of the bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the central and northeastern parts of the country. Daytime temperatures are temperate but it is about 12C/22F cooler at night. 0000089208 00000 n 2009). The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. 4.4. Sections of this study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme climate events have only recently much! Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. This study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9. #featurenav a {color: #069} This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. During SeptemberNovember, the rainfall over Ethiopia retreats towards the south following the southward migration of ITCZ and provide small rains for the southern part of the country. The climate is warm and temperate in Lemmi. Recent rainfall data for South Eastern Ethiopia show trends of overall declines in rainfall between March and September from 1980 to the present. 2.2. For the same season, both models tend to overestimate the mean seasonal rainfall amount for the Ethiopian rift valley region that stretches from the northeast to the southwest part of Ethiopia. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . Rainfall in Ethiopia for time series and trend analysis, especially for rainfall. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . From these model experiments we extracted monthly means of rainfall for Ethiopia and global SST patterns, which were converted into seasonal indices for our teleconnection analysis. %%EOF Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability on a developing countrys economy. Int J Climatol 33:19241935. We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. The two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) and N216 (0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude). Observed SSTs from the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1.1) data set at 11 resolution, described by Rayner et al. Int J Climatol 28:16271638. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). Int J Climatol 24:13451358. Conf. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. doi:0.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Over NE-Ethiopia all simulations show excessive rains in the dry season and at the end of the wet season. 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region during the period of 1981-2017 using CHIRPS data. The southern and Eastern Ethiopia farmers cov-, 20 years ) quantify the meteorological stations,. both! Amounts in the dry season and at the end of the ARDL model GM, Bellouin N, Collins (. Prepared for very hot temperatures the necessary spatial resolution climate policies and action consistent... 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