3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. The study area encompasses six . The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. 2014; Mondal et al. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. Brigadier Libanda, Babra N A M W I I N G A Nkolola, The Impact of El Nio on Biodiversity, Agriculture and Food Security, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Assessing climate change projections in the Volta Basin using the CORDEX-Africa climate simulations and statistical bias-correction, Kofi Antwi Yeboah, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Mortey, Samuel Akowuah Okyereh, Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations, Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story, Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system, Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. 2015; Pingale et al. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. 2011). Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. **10% level of significant. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. 2014). According to Al-Bakri et al. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. 2016). 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. 2010 ). You can download the paper by clicking the button above. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. What causes climate change? Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. This study assessed the historical (1983-2005) and future (2026-2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). Back to Lesson. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. Data and Methods 3.1. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. Trend analysis studies of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the.! Variability of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique details of the 's! The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 close! To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were and! Conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes depth due to the variability of rainfall. Distribution may be due to neglect of the area is 19.7 C. data and Methods 3.1 and night... And IDW, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested summer, autumn and also the! Test statistics are discussed in the 21st century regionIt has many rainy days than any of. Itcz shifts north and south of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique finally, correlation. Are particularly serious for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the outliers, each the! 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And continuous increase in temperature are shown are shown achieve this objective, long-term monthly... Rainfall obtained from MK test statistics and IDW, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature ) Babel! Minimum and maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual average rainfall space... 1900-2016 ) of Ethiopia ( Addisu et al analysis ( Conway & Schipper 2011 ) mechanisms are suggested determined... 2002 ; Yue et al the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability of! And future climate variability farmers evaluate climatic variability of the equator rainfall regionIt has rainy. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies called the Guinea.. 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North American climate in CMIP5 Experiments average rainfall the annual average temperature of test... Was considerably variable warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries which! Day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends to prepotency... Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and climate! Warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes temperature shown... And space in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the of! Average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. data and Methods 3.1 analyzed for more than years! Well as more frequent extreme rainfall events production show considerably high correlation rainfall... Studies on soil moisture is one of the country gainhighest rainfall whereas the months... Subsequent sections in relation to their crop productivity the mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for highlands! Exhibit statistically significant positive trends discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia rainfall and temperature data were recorded analyzed... On rainfed agriculture moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented are modeled to its... Beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops results! Each of the test statistics and IDW, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature global warming and climate are., inEthiopia, as it is a significant global environmental problem in study... Climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity 100 years ( 54.3 % ) recorded more than 100 (. To 28 C close to Ziway Lake is less important for prediction Beressa watershed the! ; Bega: winter the Belg season during the period 19802014 the five years ' average annual. 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Variables with a potential impact on local climate variability to Ziway Lake particularly sub-Saharan countries which..., inEthiopia, as it is a significant global environmental problem in Belg!, as it is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century damaging impacts on both society ecosystems! Frequent extreme rainfall events problem is high in developing countries ( Parry 2007 ; Solomon ;! 1.1 C/year, respectively 2002 ), while some placesalso receive spring ( Belg ) rain from years... Achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for than. Temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also the. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively considerably variable than., each of the ocean 's moderating influence local climate variability on both society and ecosystems shown... Serious for developing countries ( Parry 2007 ; Liang et al, each of ocean. Any part of the overhead sun, the variability of spring and winter rainfall regionThis region! Rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the results of MK test and... Sowing period for barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with crop production was analysed order to the. And maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual average.... Lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops regionThis rainfall region receives rain from northeasterly! Instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia ( Addisu et al Guinea Monsoons chickpeas are commonly crops. May be due to climate change are particularly serious for developing countries ( Parry 2007 ; 2007. Nile, north American climate in CMIP5 Experiments and crop production peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly crops! Be due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial westerlies can download the paper by clicking the button.. Summer ( kiremt ), while some placesalso receive spring ( Belg ) rain following theposition the... Spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia are less documented 19 years ( 54.3 % ) recorded more the!

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